Smulyanskaya N. S. Why stimulation of early fertility in Russia is unpromising

DOI: 10.21064/WinRS.2018.3.12
The obvious attempts by the government to find a way out of the demographic crisis in stimulating early fertility make it urgent to analyze the prospects for introducing possible pro-natal measures for women younger than 25 years old. Based on the analysis of the results of the micro-census of 2015 and on other data from Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service), it was concluded that the most promising for stimulating fertility is a group of women aged 25—35. In this group, high reproductive attitudes combined with the availability of proper education and financial independence, make it possible to predict not only a quantitative growth in the population, but also a qualitative increase in human capital. The older age group, despite the projected increase of this population and a serious rise in fertility rates in recent years, is significantly inferior to the rest of the groups in the ratio of the expected and desired number of children and less than others are exposed to external influences in the issue of procreation. The youngest women are more likely than others to shift the calendar of births instead of actually increasing the average number of children in the family, which on a large scale can lead to an increase in the country’s population wave character. There is also a fear that, due to insufficient social and economic stability, an increase in the birth rate in this group may lead to an increase in poverty. In addition, the experience of stimulating policies in the mid-00’s did not lead to growth in the birth rate in this age group. All this calls into question the prospects of stimulating early fertility, especially if the priority is not only quantitative indicators, but also the level of well-being, and the level of human capital.
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