Kalabikhina I. E. How various macro-level shocks can affect female employment, P. 49-73


The article discusses how various macro-level shocks (epidemiological, demographic, technological, and geopolitical shocks) can affect female employment as the basis for gender equality. The article uses official national statistics (Rosstat), statistics from international organizations, and secondary sources from scientific literature. The article is descriptive in nature, and the author used statistical and demographic methods of data analysis and visualization. This study's contribution to the topic of factors influencing gender equality consists in developing a set of hypotheses regarding the impact of various macro-level shocks on the prospects for gender equality, using the example of their impact on female employment. All of the shocks considered have both negative and positive consequences for female employment. Epidemiological shocks. During the pandemic, female employment declined more sharply than male employment due to sectoral segregation (trade and services) and increased childcare burdens due to school closures. In all of the economic shocks analyzed earlier in the last third of the 20th century, the effect was the opposite. The pandemic has had mixed effects on women's employment, both negative (automation and lower earnings from experience) and positive (improved work-life balance and reduced discrimination thanks to the introduction of remote learning and changing social norms regarding men's involvement in childcare and new opportunities for them to achieve a better work-life balance). To the long-term consequences should be added the effect of “weak” generations, which has led to the emergence of today's generation of pre-retirees and retirees who have been more affected by the shocks of the 1990s (men) and during the pandemic (women), which may affect the human capital of these cohorts (health status). Demographic shocks. On the one hand, demographic structural changes will lead to a decline in innovation, which may slow progress in gender equality. On the other hand, the shortage of young workers will improve the position of women in the labor market. Technological shocks. Technological progress (robotics and generative artificial intelligence) promotes gender equality by developing technologies that save time at work, at home, and in everyday life. On the other hand, routine work (which is more often performed by women) may lead to a higher risk of job loss for women. Women have lower digital skills and knowledge, which will lead to the need to pay a “pink tax” for success in the digital world, and generative artificial intelligence reproduces gender stereotypes to the detriment of women. Geopolitical shocks. On the one hand, the militarization of the economy creates more “cold male” jobs. On the other hand, direct and indirect losses of “male” labor will affect the use of female labor as a reserve. The so-called “pivot to the East” in economic cooperation may lead to a revival of patriarchal relations in the labor market, which could worsen the position of women in the workforce.

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